Earthquake in Nepal 'followed historical pattern':
Earthquake in Nepal 'followed historical pattern'
The devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake that hit Nepal last Saturday (25) has left thousands of victims, injured and homeless. But this tragedy is not entirely unexpected.
Scientists have identified a month ago the possibility of a major earthquake rocked occur at the exact epicenter of that quake, after a study reveal a historical pattern of earthquakes in this region.
Laurent Bollinger, the CEA research agency in France, and colleagues conducted a field research in Nepal and identified to be common that a major earthquake generate another, several years later, in the same region.
Thus, a tremor occurred in Nepal in 1934, which killed 8500 people, would have generated a lot of pressure in the basement, which was being transferred along a fault line and released 81 years later, on Saturday.
The same "domino effect" would have occurred 700 years ago, scientists say.
Earthquake in Nepal 'followed historical pattern'
Study revealed a month ago that a major earthquake in this region is usually followed by another strong quake several years later.
Scientists have identified a month ago the possibility of a major earthquake rocked occur at the exact epicenter of that quake, after a study reveal a historical pattern of earthquakes in this region.
Laurent Bollinger, the CEA research agency in France, and colleagues conducted a field research in Nepal and identified to be common that a major earthquake generate another, several years later, in the same region.
Thus, a tremor occurred in Nepal in 1934, which killed 8500 people, would have generated a lot of pressure in the basement, which was being transferred along a fault line and released 81 years later, on Saturday.
The same "domino effect" would have occurred 700 years ago, scientists say.
Fault
In his research, Bollinger and his team went to the jungle in the south-central Nepal to investigate the main fault of the country, cutting his territory from east to west and has a length of 1000 km.
In the place where the fault reaches the surface, they unearthed charcoal fragments to check when she had moved for the last time.
Ancient texts mention several earthquakes, but find in the soil of Nepal where they occurred is extremely difficult, because heavy rains, landslides and the dense foliage cover the surface of the earth, making it difficult to identify the disruptions caused by a tremor.
But from the coal analysis, the group led by Bollinger found evidence that the failure investigated had not moved for a long time.
"We show that this failure was not to blame for the great earthquakes of 1505 and 1833 and that the last time she had moved was in 1344," said Bollinger, who presented the study to the Geological Society of Nepal two weeks ago .
In his research, Bollinger and his team went to the jungle in the south-central Nepal to investigate the main fault of the country, cutting his territory from east to west and has a length of 1000 km.
In the place where the fault reaches the surface, they unearthed charcoal fragments to check when she had moved for the last time.
Ancient texts mention several earthquakes, but find in the soil of Nepal where they occurred is extremely difficult, because heavy rains, landslides and the dense foliage cover the surface of the earth, making it difficult to identify the disruptions caused by a tremor.
But from the coal analysis, the group led by Bollinger found evidence that the failure investigated had not moved for a long time.
"We show that this failure was not to blame for the great earthquakes of 1505 and 1833 and that the last time she had moved was in 1344," said Bollinger, who presented the study to the Geological Society of Nepal two weeks ago .
Concern
Previously, the team had worked on another next segment of the fault, which is just east of Kathmandu, and shown that he had undergone strong earthquakes in 1255 and then in 1934.
When the scientists saw this pattern of events, they were concerned, because when there is a great earthquake, the ground movement generated by it generates along the fault pressure transfer - and seems to have been what happened after the 1255 quake .
After 89 years, in 1344, the accumulated pressure in the eastern segment of the fault has been released, generating a new strong quake.
Now, history repeats itself, with the pressure generated in 1934 and moved eastward failure and released 81 years later.
The most worrying is that the researchers believe that aftershocks may be to come.
"Calculations suggest that the magnitude 7.8 earthquake Saturday was not strong enough to generate a burst to the surface, then it is possible that more pressure is still accumulated," said Bollinger.
"Therefore, we can expect a new major earthquake east and south in the coming decades."
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